Jump Shot Ratings

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With the draft come and gone, summer league concluded, free agency past its height, and training camps a couple weeks away, we are officially in the worst part of the NBA calendar. Seriously, you can only read so many player profiles, preseason rankings, and projections before they all just start to say the same thing. Zach Lowe already has the eccentric NBA rankings market cornered, this year tackling court designs. Finding a topic worth covering without feeling redundant is a challenge in September. So, as your stereotypical short, un-athletic white guy I decided to tackle an important topic: ranking Charlotte Hornets jump shooters. This is a purely subjective, aesthetically based ranking. Results are irrelevant. Hornets fans need to know who has the Mona Lisa of jump shots, and whose jump shot belongs in the garbage (I hate to pile it on, but we all know where this end of the spectrum is headed).

Rankings take into account mechanical soundness and the “Eff You” factor. The “Eff You” factor is a matter of stylistic flair that demoralizes an opponent as soon as the shot goes up. The kings of the jump shot “eff you” are Steph Curry and Damian Lillard. To rate highly by this metric, consistent results are required, but being a consistently great shooter doesn’t necessarily grade out in style. So, without further ado, your 2014-15 Charlotte Hornets Jump Shot Rankings, in reverse order.

14. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

This has been covered. Nobody knows what MKG’s shot is going to look like this upcoming year, but the photo evidence isn’t encouraging to me.

MKG reconstructed jump shot

MKG is my favorite Hornet. But someone might want to call a priest to exorcise the demon living in his right elbow.

13. Bismack Biyombo

I wanted to like Biz’s shot more than I do. I love the guy. Who doesn’t? He obviously finds so much joy in life that I can help but feel my spirits lifted. But the jumper just doesn’t have it. First of all, he suffers from gangly limb syndrome. His arms and legs are so long he can’t seem to figure out what to do with them. His feet are spread way too wide, feet all pigeon-toed, knees appearing to buckle. The ball comes from the left side of his body, shooting elbow flared out, off-hand way too involved… I will say this, he has a nice high release point that helps corral his arms a little bit, but there’s a lot of work to be done.

12. Gerald Henderson

This might be a personal preference thing and probably isn’t fair at all, but Hendo’s jumper is sneaky ugly for me. Let’s start with the feet. I hate the “one foot (way) forward approach.” A shooter’s strong-side foot should be a little forward, say 6 inches. But a full step? It completely throws off your alignment. You can see how it opens up everything else (hips, shoulders). The release is fine, but there’s a mechanical slowness to the entire shooting motion. He never looks comfortable shooting, and I’m never comfortable watching.
What bothers me most is that there’s no reason for any of these issues. Henderson doesn’t have abnormally long arms or large hands. He grew up in a basketball family. And if he had a reliable 3 point shot with a quick release, he would be a completely different player. Alas, it looks like he has one more year as a Hornet before he opts out and moves on to a new team.

11. Marvin Williams

I’m not actually sure how to refer to Marvin Williams. One name? Both names? Marvin seems too personal. Williams is too generic… I digress. He’s expected to be a stretch 4 for the Hornets. Hopefully it works out but when it comes to my personal rankings, Marv here commits a cardinal sin. The leg kick. I’ve spent the past 2 years trying to eliminate the leg kick from my son’s jump shot (he’s only 11, so it’s probably too soon). Other than that, everything looks good. Balanced, a nice quick release, good follow through. But those feet…

10. Al Jefferson
Should Al be higher than Marvin Williams and Gerald Henderson and maybe even Biz? Nope. Why is he? Let’s check the tape.

9. Cody Zeller

Cody’s shot is exactly what you would expect out of an Indiana boy. Fundamentally and mechanically sound, balanced, elbow tight, full extension, follow-through… it’s also epically boring. I could fall asleep watching Cody Zeller jump shots. On a side note, Eric Gordon may have the most boringly effective jump shot in the league. Imagine that. Another Indiana guy.

8. Noah Vonleh

Vonleh is an interesting shooter. There’s not a lot of tape for his shooting, even if I had the patience to dig through college highlights. Another guy to play at Indiana, another mechanically sound shot. He beats out Cody with a little more “eff you” (love the extended follow-through) and his ability to maintain solid form despite having long arms that could get in the way and huge hands. The future is bright with this guy.

7. Jeff Taylor

I’ve covered Taylor’s shooting (here) extensively so I’ll keep it simple. Points for form and a little bit of style. Negative points for a snail-like release.

6. Kemba Walker

I like Kemba’s 3-point shot for the most part. He’s got solid balance, a nice compact release, good follow-through. I don’t love how he doesn’t fully extend his legs, but I love how quickly he gets his shot off. I think he’ll improve as a 3 point shooter over time. Things fall apart a little bit in the mid-range, something he loves a little too much. While he has an uncanny ability to find his balance using jump-stops, he doesn’t consistently follow through with his legs and arms once he gets inside the arc. As a fellow mid-range short-armer, it bothers me more than it probably should. Extra points for flair though. All of the flair. Putting Kemba above Jeff Taylor speaks to my soft spot for quick releases, high arc, and swaggy jumpers.

5. Lance Stephenson

Now we’re cooking. Quick release, no hesitation, consistent form, deep range with no effort… The results aren’t quite there, knocking him down a peg. But I see it getting better as his career progresses. I don’t need to say anything about the swag factor. Born Ready indeed.

4. Jannero Pargo

Pargo is the ultimate street ball gunner. When he gets the ball, shots are going up from anywhere and everywhere on the court. I love it. I have to dock him for doing it in garbage time. It’s one thing to drop 3’s against the Blazers when you’re already down 30 points (that game still hurts). It’s another to do it when it matters.

3. Brian Roberts

Roberts is a lot like Pargo, except he did it in games where it actually mattered. A quick trigger with an equally quick release and deep range. Charlotte has been lacking in overly aggressive shooters and Roberts is a member of the newest platoon of long range assassins, along with the next 2 guys. We need more pull-up 3’s in transition.

2. PJ Hairston

Not a lot of video here, so we’ll just roll with the NBA.com highlights (while giving my weak video editing skills a break). The D-League stuff isn’t high quality and I refuse to include anything in my posts involving that hideous shade of blue. The mechanics aren’t perfect, but this time I don’t care. It’s so fun to watch PJ jack shots up from all over the court. Quick and confident, unlimited range… Hopefully Coach Clifford can clean up the rough edges and turn him into a 3-and-D monster.

1. Gary Neal

Gary Neal was the inspiration for this list. I was recently watching clips for something else I was working on and I realized I had never recognized how great his shot looks. I’ll let the video do most of the talking. Just look forward to the constant movement, flying around screens and along the baseline, popping out for gorgeous 3’s. The form isn’t necessarily perfect. But it’s quick, it’s balanced, it’s consistent, and it has a flair about it that lets the defense know they’re in trouble. Lance, Brian Roberts (he needs a nickname that’s NOT B-Rob. Let’s be better guys), PJ Be Shooting, and Gary Neal are going to bring something this team desperately needed.

-Bradford Coombs
@bradford_NBA

Bargain Bin Ballers

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Common knowledge says that NBA teams, especially small market teams, must build through the Draft if they have any hope at achieving relevance. While it is true that the Lottery offers organizations the best chance at finding impact players, it’s also true – as Kevin Love and Carmelo Anthony have recently discovered – that it takes more than a single impact player to win in the NBA.

The Bobcats are on the verge of both a .500 season and a Playoff berth with a hefty chunk of their rotation made up of guys from the opposite end of Draft Day’s glitz and glamour. Castoffs. Street free agents and end of the bench veterans left for dead by their former clubs. Ironically, this dynamic makes Charlotte less Oklahoma City – a team which the Bobcats have explicitly said they’re emulating – and more San Antonio. The Spurs decade and a half dominance of the league has just as much to do with finding guys off the league value rack and plugging them into a system as it does with winning the Tim Duncan Lottery.

Spurs Bargain Bin Hall of Famers: Bruce Bowen, Mario Elie, Danny Green, Malik Rose, Francisco Elson, Marco Bellinelli, Patty Mills, Boris Diaw…

The confidence gained from consistently uncovering low-cost, hidden gems has emboldened the Spurs front office to gamble on uncertain talent in the Draft: Tiago Splitter was stuck in Europe for a few seasons. Kawhi Leonard couldn’t shoot. Tony Parker was a long term project and it was no sure thing Manu Ginobili’s game would translate to the NBA. None of this stuff mattered to San Antonio’s immediate future. They knew high level temps were just around the corner.

Bargain Bin Ballers aren’t going to be the centerpiece of any contender but they do fill in the gaps and give a team’s stars occasional breaks during the regular season. And if enough of a team’s periphery catch fire at the right time – as Dallas fans witnessed in 2011 – they could swing a title. Best of all, these types of players provide tremendous value in terms of contract/performance and most importantly don’t require a franchise to waste precious first round picks on filling out a roster. The Draft is where you go to find stars (which is why drafting for need in the NBA should be considered a cardinal sin) - the bargain bin is where you go to fill in the gaps.

Charlotte’s Bargain Ballers

Josh McRoberts
Salary: $2,652,000
Acquired: via Trade, February ’13.

“Don’t Call Me McBob” arrived via trade last February for virtually no cost and just a year later is beloved by both teammates and fans as a key facilitator on offense and a hustler on D. Josh’s unique skill-set (his 4.2 assists per game are second most amongst power forwards) allows Kemba Walker to play off the ball as a scorer and McRoberts is just good enough from three (36%) to open a little more breathing room for Al Jefferson to operate down low.

Future: McRoberts has a player option next season at $2.7 million which he’ll opt out of. If Charlotte offers him a fair deal, he could likely return next season. Two years, $10m or three years $15m, sounds about right. Cody Zeller may take over the starting job eventually but McRoberts is still a fine rotation big at that number.

Anthony Tolliver
Salary: $884,293
Acquired: Street Free Agent, August ’13.

Tolliver’s shot has been missing in action for most of the last month but there was a stretch from December thru February where AT was absolute money from downtown (44%+ 3PT), at one point ranking in the league’s Top 5 3PT shooters. His defensive shortcomings are well known but he’s played ok as a system defender in Charlotte – Tolliver’s on/off court defensive numbers are basically dead even.

Future: The front office brought Tolliver in before camp at Steve Clifford’s request for more floor spacers. Since then the Cats have added a couple guys who can do that and more. AT’s deal expires in July and it’s a tossup on whether he returns next season as a Hornet.

Chris Douglas-Roberts
Salary: $535,288
Acquired: Street Free Agent, December ’13.

CDR is this season’s McRoberts. A slashing, tough defending and surprisingly sweet shooting (40% 3PT) wing, Douglas-Roberts has revitalized his NBA career on a team that didn’t have a reliable two-way SF before he arrived. And really, could the Cats have asked for a better intermediate sub/mentor for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist? Not only are they somewhat similar players, but the two actually have long history going back to MKG’s middle school days in Jersey. CDR’s work ethic and humble demeanor (he’d been struggling just to get back into the league) fit right in the with the team’s “Grit and Grind East” ethos.

Future: The big question is if CDR’s three point shooting will hold up. From 2008-2010, Douglas-Roberts had never shot higher than 32% from downtown – and rarely even attempted them. The Cats could offer him a “show-me” contract similar to the one signed by McRoberts last summer – something like 2yrs, $4m with a player option for year two. If CDR proves the stroke to be no fluke, Charlotte may have found itself their own Bruce Bowen.

Gary Neal
Salary: $3,250,000
Acquired: via Trade, February ’14.

Neal is a classic all or nothing guy. If he gets hot, Gary can single-handily swing a game your way – just as he did for the Spurs in the NBA Finals last year. He’s both a solid deep shooter (39% 3PT) and a creative off the dribble player. He gets lost on screens a lot and is an overall liability on D but there’s a reason San Antonio had him on the roster for three seasons. On a team that often finds itself desperate for points, Neal’s scoring is a major plus.

Future: Gary signed a two year contract with Milwaukee last summer before being traded. He’s on the books next year for the same salary – a relative bargain. Unless he gets dealt again, Neal will rock the teal and purple next season.

Ultimately, the success of Bargain Bin Ballers can be traced to the Bobcats’ new found culture and coaching system. Put this same group of guys on the Kings or Pistons and it’s unlikely that they’d replicate their success - highlighting yet another hidden bonus of finding the right coach and a key reason why I think we’ll see coaching take a higher priority over the next few seasons in the league. A trend the Hornets are thankfully already out in front of.

-ASChin

@BaselineBuzz

Veteran Spurs Too Professional for Bobcats

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Oh, to be a Spurs fan.  Year after year of professional execution on and off the court: drafting top European talent in later rounds, finding NCAA collegiate castoffs, under-paying for overlooked role players and retaining homegrown stars.  It was that dedication to excellence, to the minutia of the game, that defeated an otherwise solid effort by the Bobcats 95-91 Monday night in Charlotte.  ‘Cats fall to 1-6, Spurs move to 5-1.

AP Recap | Box Score

OBSERVATIONS

  • Gary Neal is this year’s George Hill. Fifteen points in fourteen minutes on five three pointers, the 26 year old “rookie” from B-more via Europe killed the Bobcats this evening from beyond the arc.  Neal set up camp outside and never hesitated, often finding himself wide open until Charlotte decided to cover him in the 4th.  Too late.  Neal and Manu Ginobili were the difference makers in this one, combining for 10 threes and total of 41 points.
  • Manu is back. Ginobili looked like his old self, leaving his man in a trail of screens and ferreting himself free for numerous putbacks and second chance opportunities.  Combined with the outstanding depth of quality youngsters on the roster (Neal, Hill, Splitter, Blair, Anderson), a healthy Manu might keep the Spurs’ title window open for yet another season.  They look good.
  • Stephen Jackson is on the Verge.  If I’m Larry Brown, I’m putting a call into the highest levels of the League Office.  The refs have been openly baiting Jackson for an ejection all season.  Tonights 4 free throw attempts were JAX’s first in three games and he should’ve had at least a half dozen more.  I swear I’m not being a homer, the no-calls are near egregious and it is only a matter of time until Jackson has some sort of mental breakdown either on the court or off.  You can see it in his body language.  Something is brewing and the officials know it.
  • Both Jackson and Gerald Wallace were held out of the game late.  Jackson didn’t seem hurt but Wallace left in the third with an undisclosed injury.  Brown may have pulled JAX simply for his performance: another 6 Turnovers for Stephen to add to his 3.5/game average.  Again, the refs agenda seems to have distracted him to the point were he’s openly forcing passes and dribble drives that aren’t there.
  • Nice games by Tyrus Thomas, Boris Diaw and Gana Diop. Tyrus continues to hustle on every play, blocking shots and going for loose balls.  His skill level is still low but you gotta love the effort.  Diaw looked good again despite the added bulk, going for 15pts, 6rbs, 5asts.  Let’s hear it for Gana Diop! He’s gone from being an absolute joke and salary cap albatross to “an overpaid backup center.”  Gana really defended Tim Duncan well during his 15 minutes of action, looking much more fluid and mobile this year and while he’s no Brook Lopez offensively, he’s not killing the team on that end anymore.  Those fortunate enough to watch the game may have witnessed Gana’s first (and possibly last) turnaround fadeaway twelve footer from the block.  Nothin’ but net.

Yeah, the Bobcats are 1-6 but I’m still not panicking.  One through twelve, the roster has never been as solid and I have to believe that Brown and MJ are working the phones to upgrade the PG position soon.  Nothing against D.J. — he’s doing as well as we could have hoped — but he’s simply not the long term answer at the most important position on the floor.  ‘Cats are much better than their record and I fully expect them to make the Playoffs come April.

Until Next Time…Enjoy the Loss Bobcats Fans,

-ASChin